The gullible healthy

Have you heard of probiotics? If not, where have you been?

They're in yoghourts, cheeses, milk drinks - all over the place. A related phenomenon, prebiotics, are in most cereal-based products.

These things have been added to animal feed for a long time, and they do improve health. Will they work in humans?

Absolutely. Or at least, the statistics will prove they do.

These health-enhancers will only ever be consumed by the health-conscious. Those who run when nobody is chasing them, and lift heavy weights that don't need to be moved. Those whose primary diet is leaves and roots. In short, those who have no need of probiotics or prebiotics.

The string-vested builder with his pie and chips is not going to look twice at these products. The teenager, with his plastic tray bearing an equally synthetic meal, won't touch them. The couch potato with his microwaved curry and six-pack of lager won't even acknowledge their existence.

These are the people who could benefit from these products, but they're placed in foods these people won't eat. The reason is simple economics. Adding these health benefits costs money. You can charge more for a health food, and the health-conscious will pay. The health-unconscious won't.

So it doesn't actually matter whether your probiotic works. Only the already-healthy people will try it.

In twenty years, these companies will crow about how those who used their product lived longer than those who didn't. They'll be right, but for the wrong reasons.

If only health-consciousness didn't go hand in hand with gullible.